Same-game parlays explained: why correlated legs pay less

A same-game parlay links several bets on one game, & because those bets tend to move together, sportsbooks pay less than a standard parlay would.

What a same-game parlay is

A same-game parlay, often shortened to SGP, is a parlay built entirely from bets on a single game. Action Network’s same-game parlay guide defines it as “a parlay with multiple bets from the same game” & adds: “You must win every leg of the bet for it to cash.”

A parlay, also called an accumulator or acca, is a single bet that links two or more individual wagers, according to Wikipedia. Each linked wager is called a leg, & if any leg loses, the whole parlay loses.

Action Network says the markets usually open to an SGP include point spreads, totals (bets on the combined score), variations of those such as first-half totals or alternate spreads, player props & game props. A prop, short for proposition, is a bet on something inside the game, such as a player’s rushing yards or the first team to 10 points.

How an ordinary parlay is priced

In an ordinary parlay, the winnings from one leg are in effect staked on the next. Wikipedia sets out the arithmetic using odds of -110, which means staking $110 to win $100 profit: a $100 parlay on N matches returns $100 multiplied by 210/110, raised to the power N.

In American odds, a minus figure such as -110 shows the stake needed to win $100.

Parlays still pay below the “true” odds. Wikipedia gives the example of a common two-team NFL parlay on the spread (a handicap applied to the favourite), which generally pays 2.64:1, when two bets that are each 50/50 should pay 3:1.

The same source says that at -110 on every match, a bettor needs to be right more than about 52.38% of the time (110 divided by 210) to have the advantage. At a true 50% chance, the edge sits with the house.

Why correlation changes the maths

The arithmetic above assumes each leg is independent. Wikipedia describes correlated parlays as “two or more bets from the same game that rely on a closely related outcome”, such as a football (soccer) team scoring more than three goals & also winning, since a team that scores that many is very likely to win.

Wikipedia says a naive application of odds that treated such events as uncorrelated “would not accurately reflect the probability of the linked bet”, & that correlated parlays are usually not allowed by traditional bookmakers. It says that traditional hesitance has weakened with the rise of sports betting through mobile gambling apps in the late 2010s & 2020s, whose systems attempt “to compensate for the degree of correlation”.

Action Network says FanDuel began letting bettors build parlays on the same game in 2019, calling it the Same Game Parlay, & that every major sportsbook then launched its own version. It adds that books get the underlying maths from specialised data providers, & that DraftKings uses Genius Sports for some of its SGP data.

Action Network’s illustration: the Chiefs covering -6.5 in the first half & -10 over the full game are correlated, because if the first happens the second becomes much more likely. So the book does not pay the +260 a normal two-bet parlay pays, even though the true probability is +300.

A worked example

Action Network prices a three-leg SGP from a previous NFL season: Chiefs -10, Chiefs -6.5 first half & over 47.5 points for the full game, each at -110. “A three-leg parlay with each at -110 normally pays +595. This one pays +357.”

Action Network calls the two Chiefs spreads highly correlated, with the over slightly correlated to both because favourites cover more often when games go over. It says the gap between +357 & +595 amounts to a 7.5% difference in break-even rate, meaning the bettor must win that much more often to come out level.

Most of the cut comes from the two spreads. Action Network says FanDuel offered +143 for Chiefs -10 & Chiefs -6.5 first half together, against +260 for a normal two-team parlay, which it describes as a 13.37% probability cut.

The extra margin inside an SGP

Sportsbooks build a margin, known as vig or juice, into every price. Action Network names three ways a book cuts SGP payouts: the existing juice on each bet, the adjustment for correlation & a further charge it calls “this other random tax”.

To measure that extra charge, Action Network paired Colts -2.5 at -112 with Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards against the Patriots, betting one unit split between a parlay with his over & a parlay with his under. If the Colts covered, either parlay returned 1.78 units, which implies the Colts leg was priced at -128 rather than -112.

“That’s a break-even rate of 56.14% compared to 52.83%,” Action Network writes, or “3.31% in extra vig for the book, on top of the 2.83% juice they’re already charging you.”

The guide says some books also shave prices on legs that are not really correlated. It cites DraftKings paying +1000 for a running back at +150 & a wide receiver at +400 both scoring a touchdown, against +1150 at normal parlay odds, a 1.09% probability difference.

Wikipedia describes the general pattern for all parlays: books do not raise the payout as much as the odds demand, “with the effect of the house edge increasing in parlays”.

What state reports show about parlay hold

Hold is the share of money wagered that a sportsbook keeps as revenue. The Illinois reports below give parlay hold next to the overall hold for the same month.

Reporting Illinois Gaming Board figures for July 2024, Action Network says more than half of operator revenue came from parlay wagering. “The overall hold for the multi-leg bets was 19.3%”, with the house winning $40.4 million from $208.9 million in completed-events handle, against a statewide hold of 9.2%.

In the same month FanDuel’s mobile book took $20.2 million from parlays, a 23.3% win rate on close to $87 million wagered, according to that report.

Hold moves from month to month. For September 2025, Covers reports Illinois Gaming Board data showing $1.42 billion in handle & a 7.1% overall hold, with parlay hold at 13%, the best result for Illinois bettors since March.

Covers says FanDuel’s $39.4 million in September 2025 revenue included “more than $25 million coming from parlays”. Wikipedia, citing The Washington Post on 9 October 2025, says parlays account for over 60% of the revenue of some sports betting companies.

Voided legs & pushes

A leg is voided when the bet is cancelled, for example when a player in a prop does not play, & it pushes when the result lands exactly on the line. In an ordinary parlay, Wikipedia says a push makes the parlay revert to fewer wagers, with the payout reduced accordingly.

Action Network’s guide to prop rules gives an example: three props parlayed at +600, with two winning & one pushing, become a two-leg parlay at about +260.

Same-game parlays have been handled differently. Action Network says some sportsbooks used to void the entire SGP when a player did not play, largely because recalculating correlated odds is complex, but “Today, most major books instead void the affected leg and reprice the parlay. DraftKings is a clear example of this newer approach.”

The detail varies by book & sport. Action Network quotes DraftKings’ house rule that on player props a player “must play at least one snap for bets to have action”, notes that BetMGM requires quarterbacks to start, & says all United States sportsbooks are required to post house rules.

Restrictions & risks

Not every market can go into an SGP. Action Network says that “if correlation for a prop can’t be easily accounted for, they just don’t offer it”, & that FanDuel lets bettors parlay only the bets listed on its separate SGP tab.

Each added leg lowers the chance of winning. Wikipedia says linking bets “drastically reduces the chance of the bet paying off”, & Action Network writes: “The implied probability of hitting a 150-1 parlay is .66%. Hitting a 500-1 parlay has a .20% chance.”

Wikipedia notes that correlation models have sometimes produced favourable odds for bettors, but that sportsbooks “have sometimes simply refused to pay out” when such parlays won, citing a Washington Post report from 17 January 2024.

Wikipedia also says getting three of four legs right pays no better than none, though it can “feel” like a near-win. It quotes a FanDuel executive saying “customers understand that these [parlays] are fun, entertaining bets with a lower likelihood of winning.”

Questions

What does SGP mean?

SGP stands for same-game parlay, a parlay made of multiple bets from the same game. Action Network says every leg must win for the ticket to cash.

Why does a same-game parlay pay less than multiplying the legs?

Bets from one game are often correlated, so one result makes another more likely, & books reduce the payout to reflect that. Action Network also identifies an extra margin on top, such as a Colts leg priced at -128 instead of -112 inside an SGP.

What happens to an SGP if a player does not play?

Action Network says most major books now void the affected leg & reprice the parlay, with DraftKings as an example, whereas some books used to void the whole SGP. Rules vary, so each book’s posted house rules set the outcome.

How much do sportsbooks keep on parlays?

In Illinois, parlay hold was 19.3% in July 2024 against 9.2% overall, according to Illinois Gaming Board figures reported by Action Network. In September 2025, Covers reports parlay hold of 13% against 7.1% overall.

Sources

• caesars.com
• caesars.com
• en.wikipedia.org
• actionnetwork.com
• actionnetwork.com
• covers.com
• actionnetwork.com

Sources checked 29 October 2026. Information only. 18+.