Kalshi still prices the Giants at just 1% to win the Super Bowl even after the trade.
The hit
The Giants have traded for quarterback JJ McCarthy from the Minnesota Vikings after rookie starter Jaxson Dart suffered a season-ending knee injury, according to Sports Betting Dime. New York, sitting at 2-1, made the move to protect their NFC East push. McCarthy went 6-4 as a starter for Minnesota in 2025.
Why it matters
For bettors, the trade barely moved the ceiling. Kalshi still has the Giants at just 1% to win the Super Bowl, & sportsbooks list them as home favourites for Week 4 against Arizona even though prediction markets now favour the Cardinals. The bigger swing is in the win total market, where the outlook has improved sharply since Dart’s injury.
The record
| McCarthy 2025 starter record | 6-4 in 10 starts (Sports Betting Dime) |
|---|---|
| McCarthy 2025 passing | 1,632 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs (Sports Betting Dime) |
| Giants 7+ wins | 59% implied probability (Kalshi) |
| Giants Super Bowl odds | 1% implied probability (Kalshi) |
| Week 4 spread | Giants -2.5 (-110) at sportsbooks vs Cardinals 52% win probability on Kalshi |
What happens next
Watch whether McCarthy starts Week 4 against Arizona or eases in as backup, & whether the Giants’ win total market keeps climbing from its current 59% mark for 7+ wins.
Sources: JJ McCarthy Traded to Giants – See NYG’s Week 4 Odds, Super Bowl Futures & Latest Win Total
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